U.S. stock bull market is expected to continue

Although the Fed and other central banks are preparing to withdraw their stimulus during the pandemic, market liquidity is still abundant next year, and policy support will stimulate the stock market to continue rise. For the United States, the amount of fiscal stimulus this time is the highest in history, and although monetary policy will slightly tighten, it is still relatively loose from a historical perspective. In addition, corporate profits continue to grow.

From historical experience, the bull market in US stocks is expected to continue. From the 1930s to the present, in this nearly 100-year period, the bull market of US stocks will rise for an average of 5 years, with an average increase of 250%. Even the shortest bull market, such as the mid-1960s, was about 26 months up. From the end of March last year to the present, this bull market has been less than two years old. From experience, it has not yet reached the end of this bull market.

In addition, the U.S. stock bull market is also supported by fundamentals. The scale of US current stimulus policy is the largest in history, reaching trillions of dollars. And once the United States starts a combination of fiscal and monetary, the bull market tends to last for a long time. Even if the Fed gradually tightens policy, market liquidity will remain amplified next year. The overall situation is still relatively loose, and the bull market is expected to continue.